Flood-related infrastructural resilience of single-industry towns in Kazakhstan: a comparative analysis of Kulsary and Ridder

Abstract

In the context of accelerating climate change and the increasing frequency of extreme hydrological events, including floods, single-industry towns exhibit heightened vulnerability due to limited economic diversification, aging infrastructure, and strong dependence on institutional capacity. The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of flood-related infrastructural resilience of Kazakhstan’s single-industry towns using a multi-factor indicator-based framework. The study proposes and empirically applies an integrated metric - the Flood Infrastructure Resilience Index (FIRI) - designed to quantify the capacity of urban infrastructure systems to withstand flooding, reduce damage, and ensure recovery. The index consists of four interrelated components: the condition of engineering infrastructure, the level of preventive preparedness and mitigation measures, the effectiveness of governance during emergency response, and the socio-economic impacts of flooding. The empirical analysis is based on flood events recorded in 2023-2024 in the single-industry towns of Kulsary and Ridder. The methodological approach combines indicator normalization, comparative analysis, factor decomposition, and sensitivity analysis. The results demonstrate a substantial disparity in resilience levels between the studied towns: Kulsary exhibits a low FIRI value of 0.31, while Ridder shows a significantly higher resilience level with a FIRI of 0.69. The findings indicate that flood resilience is driven primarily by the consistency of preventive measures and the quality of governance coordination rather than by economic capacity or infrastructure scale alone. Preventive preparedness and governance components account for more than 64% of the observed differences in overall resilience. The study confirms the limitations of reactive flood management strategies and provides quantitative evidence supporting the effectiveness of preventive, data-driven approaches. The proposed FIRI framework offers a practical tool for assessing flood resilience, prioritizing investments, and designing climate adaptation strategies for single-industry towns.