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Abstract
The article offers a comparative assessment of increases in standard value-added tax (VAT) rates over the past fifteen years and analyzes their effects on tax revenue potential across a set of European and non-European economies. The focus is on Central and Eastern European countries with active continuous transaction control (CTC) agendas for VAT (Poland, Hungary, Greece), as well as the United Kingdom as a benchmark of incremental administrative improvement under a fixed 20% rate. For external contrast, New Zealand and Japan are examined to illuminate the role of reform package design and behavioral responses. An event-window design (t–2…t+2) around the reform year is employed alongside a unified metric set - the VAT gap as a share of the VAT total tax liability (VTTL), VAT revenue as a share of GDP, and efficiency coefficients (VRR/C-efficiency) - supplemented by administrative digitalization indicators (e-invoicing, near-real-time reporting, e-filing coverage, refund lead times) and the prevalence of digital payments. The analysis shows that durable VAT revenue gains arise primarily where rate hikes were paired with CTC instruments, predictable refunds, and a narrowing of the policy gap (reduced exemptions and reliefs). Where compliance is weak and the base is narrow, mechanical rate increases yield only temporary or attenuated returns. Based on the cross-country comparisons, practical implications are drawn for Kazakhstan: the priority is to enhance efficiency and rationalize reliefs before considering a rate increase; implications for the EU and specific recommendations for Poland are also discussed.